A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
